Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:00 · Montpellier vs Grenoble Foot 38
Likeliest: Grenoble Foot 38 win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 20%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montpellier36%54%−17
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Grenoble Foot 3839%20%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 80% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 46% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 73% | −25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montpellier
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 10 · at Annecy (A)0-0
- Apr 4 · v Troyes (H)2-2
- Mar 20 · at Pau (A)0-0
- Mar 13 · v Laval (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Nancy (A)3-0
Grenoble Foot 38
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Apr 10 · at Guingamp (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Clermont (H)2-2
- Mar 20 · at Laval (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v Saint-Étienne (H)0-0
- Mar 6 · at Rodez (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Montpellier | Grenoble Foot 38 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-7-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.