Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · Montpellier vs Grenoble Foot 38
Likeliest: Montpellier win · 57%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montpellier57%57%0
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Grenoble Foot 3816%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montpellier
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 18 · at Stade de Reims (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Pau FC (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Saint-Étienne (A)1-3
- Aug 28 · v US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at USL Dunkerque (A)1-0
Grenoble Foot 38
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 18 · v Clermont Foot (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Rodez AF (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Annecy FC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Stade Lavallois (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Montpellier | Grenoble Foot 38 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.