Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Apr 4 · 12:00 · Montpellier vs Troyes
Likeliest: Troyes win · 55%
A 55% away win. The market says 38%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montpellier23%34%−11
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Troyes55%38%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 62% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 66% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 47% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montpellier
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Mar 20 · at Pau (A)0-0
- Mar 13 · v Laval (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Nancy (A)3-0
- Feb 27 · v Reims (H)0-0
- Feb 20 · at Rodez (A)0-1
Troyes
WinWinWinWinWin
- Mar 21 · v Dunkerque (H)5-1
- Mar 16 · at Annecy (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Clermont (H)2-1
- Mar 2 · at Amiens SC (A)2-0
- Feb 21 · v Pau (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | Montpellier | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.