Coppa Italia (Italy) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:45 · Monza vs Avellino
Likeliest: Monza win · 40%
A 34% away win. The market says 19%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monza40%57%−18
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Avellino34%19%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 81% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 43% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 75% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monza
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- May 29 · v Catanzaro (H)0-2
- May 24 · at Catanzaro (A)2-0
- May 19 · v Juve Stabia (H)2-1
- May 16 · at Juve Stabia (A)2-2
- May 8 · v Empoli (H)2-2
Avellino
WinWinLossWinLoss
- May 12 · at Catanzaro (A)0-3
- May 8 · v Modena (H)1-0
- May 1 · at Empoli (A)0-1
- Apr 24 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Mantova (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Monza | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.