Serie B (Italy) · Fri, May 29 · 18:00 · Monza vs Catanzaro
Likeliest: Monza win · 42%
A 33% away win. The market says 21%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monza42%55%−13
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Catanzaro33%21%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 45% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 72% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monza
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- May 24 · at Catanzaro (A)2-0
- May 19 · v Juve Stabia (H)2-1
- May 16 · at Juve Stabia (A)2-2
- May 8 · v Empoli (H)2-2
- May 1 · at Mantova (A)2-3
Catanzaro
LossWinWinLossLoss
- May 24 · v Monza (H)0-2
- May 20 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- May 17 · v Palermo (H)3-0
- May 12 · v Avellino (H)3-0
- May 8 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Monza | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.