Serie B (Italy) · Fri, May 8 · 18:30 · Monza vs Empoli
Likeliest: Monza win · 54%
We make it 60% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monza54%55%−2
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Empoli24%21%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 56% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 73% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monza
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- May 1 · at Mantova (A)2-3
- Apr 24 · v Modena (H)1-0
- Apr 17 · at Sampdoria (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Catanzaro (A)1-1
Empoli
LossLossDrawLossWin
- May 1 · v Avellino (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Venezia (A)0-2
- Apr 19 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Calcio Padova (A)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Sampdoria (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Monza | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.