Serie B (Italy) · Tue, May 19 · 18:00 · Monza vs Juve Stabia
Likeliest: Monza win · 39%
A 36% away win. The market says 16%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monza39%61%−22
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+3
OursMarket
Juve Stabia36%16%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 84% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 39% | +22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 79% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monza
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- May 16 · at Juve Stabia (A)2-2
- May 8 · v Empoli (H)2-2
- May 1 · at Mantova (A)2-3
- Apr 24 · v Modena (H)1-0
- Apr 17 · at Sampdoria (A)3-0
Juve Stabia
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- May 16 · v Monza (H)2-2
- May 12 · at Modena (A)1-0
- May 8 · at Südtirol (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Frosinone (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Pescara (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Monza | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.