Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 16 · 14:00 · Monza vs Lecce
Likeliest: Monza win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Monza52%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
Lecce20%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monza
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 9 · at Lazio (A)1-5
- Feb 1 · v Hellas Verona (H)0-1
- Jan 27 · at Genoa (A)0-2
- Jan 18 · at Bologna (A)1-3
- Jan 13 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
Lecce
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Feb 9 · v Bologna (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Parma (A)3-1
- Jan 26 · v Inter (H)0-4
- Jan 19 · at Cagliari (A)1-4
- Jan 11 · at Empoli (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Monza | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-0-5 | 2-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.