Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Mar 15 · 14:00 · Monza vs Parma
Likeliest: Monza win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Monza39%——
OursMarket
Draw31%——
OursMarket
Parma29%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monza
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Mar 8 · at Inter (A)2-3
- Mar 2 · v Torino (H)0-2
- Feb 24 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Feb 16 · v Lecce (H)0-0
- Feb 9 · at Lazio (A)1-5
Parma
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Mar 8 · v Torino (H)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Bologna (H)2-0
- Feb 16 · v Roma (H)0-1
- Feb 9 · at Cagliari (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Monza | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.