Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Aug 29 · 16:30 · Monza vs Udinese
Likeliest: Monza win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 29%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monza38%29%+10
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Udinese35%41%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 42% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 71% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 41% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monza
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at Inter Milan (A)1-4
- Aug 14 · v Avellino (H)3-0
- May 29 · v Catanzaro (H)0-2
- May 24 · at Catanzaro (A)2-0
- May 19 · v Juve Stabia (H)2-1
Udinese
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Aug 22 · v Como (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Padova (H)1-0
- May 24 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Cremonese (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Cagliari (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Monza | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.