Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Fri, Oct 9 · 17:45 · Moreirense vs Gil Vicente
Likeliest: Gil Vicente win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Moreirense24%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Gil Vicente44%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Moreirense
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Vitória SC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Marítimo (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · v Benfica (H)0-4
- Sep 4 · at FC Porto (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Casa Pia (A)1-0
Gil Vicente
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Marítimo (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Benfica (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Académico Viseu FC (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Famalicão (A)0-0
- Aug 24 · v Casa Pia (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Moreirense | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.