1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Moss FK vs Åsane
Likeliest: Moss FK win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Moss FK63%60%+3
OursMarket
Draw20%20%−1
OursMarket
Åsane17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 71% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Moss FK
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Lyn FK (A)0-1
- Oct 14 · v Egersund (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Raufoss (A)2-1
- Oct 5 · v Kongsvinger (H)0-2
- Sep 23 · at Grorud (A)1-1
Åsane
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Stabæk Fotball (H)0-1
- Oct 14 · at Strømmen IF (A)1-6
- Oct 11 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Strømsgodset (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Bryne FK (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Moss FK | Åsane |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-4-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.