1. Division (Norway) · Wed, Oct 14 · 17:00 · Moss FK vs Egersund
Likeliest: Egersund win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Moss FK36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Egersund38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Moss FK
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Raufoss (A)2-1
- Oct 5 · v Kongsvinger (H)0-2
- Sep 23 · at Grorud (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Sandnes Ulf (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Haugesund (H)1-4
Egersund
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Hødd IL (H)3-1
- Oct 2 · at Ranheim IL (A)0-5
- Sep 20 · at Odds BK (A)1-5
- Sep 16 · at Jerv (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Kongsvinger (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Moss FK | Egersund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.