Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 20 · 18:30 · Motherwell vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: Motherwell win · 52%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Motherwell52%16%+36
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
SC Freiburg24%64%−40
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 59% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 36% | +40 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 84% | −36 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 20% | +49 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Motherwell
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 13 · v HJK (H)2-0
- Aug 9 · v Falkirk FC (H)0-0
- Aug 6 · at HJK (A)1-1
- Aug 2 · at Hibernian (A)2-1
- Jul 30 · at HB Tórshavn (A)3-0
SC Freiburg
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- May 20 · v Aston Villa (H)0-3
- May 16 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
- May 10 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- May 7 · v Sporting Braga (H)3-1
- May 3 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Motherwell | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.