Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:15 · Motor Lublin vs Górnik Zabrze
Likeliest: Górnik Zabrze win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Motor Lublin26%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Górnik Zabrze48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Motor Lublin
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 11 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Legia Warszawa (H)2-3
- Aug 29 · v Piast Gliwice (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v GKS Katowice (H)1-0
Górnik Zabrze
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 15 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Lech Poznań (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Cracovia (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v GKS Katowice (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Motor Lublin | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.