Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:45 · Motor Lublin vs Śląsk Wrocław
Likeliest: Motor Lublin win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Motor Lublin46%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Śląsk Wrocław29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Motor Lublin
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 12 · at Radomiak Radom (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Legia Warszawa (H)2-3
- Aug 29 · v Piast Gliwice (H)0-2
Śląsk Wrocław
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Lech Poznań (H)1-4
- Sep 18 · at Wisła Kraków (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Legia Warszawa (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Motor Lublin | Śląsk Wrocław |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.