Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:00 · Motor Lublin vs Zagłębie Lubin
Likeliest: Motor Lublin win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Motor Lublin45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Zagłębie Lubin28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Motor Lublin
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)3-2
- Oct 12 · at Radomiak Radom (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Legia Warszawa (H)2-3
Zagłębie Lubin
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Cracovia (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Wisła Płock (H)0-2
- Sep 15 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v GKS Katowice (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Motor Lublin | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.