Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 13:00 · Mozambique vs Sudan
Likeliest: draw · 45%
A 45% draw. The market says 31%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mozambique27%48%−21
OursMarket
Draw45%31%+14
OursMarket
Sudan28%21%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 33% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 38% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 79% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 52% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 55% | 69% | −14 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 69% | −20 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mozambique
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Senegal (H)1-1
- Jun 9 · at Indonesia (A)0-1
- Jun 7 · at Oman (A)1-4
- Nov 17 · at Chad (A)2-2
- Nov 14 · at Morocco (A)0-1
Sudan
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 25 · v Ethiopia (H)0-0
- Nov 18 · at Oman U23 (A)0-0
- Nov 14 · at Oman (A)0-2
- Mar 13 · at Oman (A)0-0
- May 19 · v Tanzania (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Mozambique | Sudan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-4 | 1-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.