Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · MP vs JäPS
Likeliest: MP win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MP47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
JäPS30%26%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 74% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MP
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · at KäPa (A)1-1
- Sep 25 · at KTP (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Jippo Joensuu (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v SJK Akatemia (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Haka (A)2-0
JäPS
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 9 · v Jippo Joensuu (H)0-4
- Sep 26 · at HJK Klubi 04 (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v EIF (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at KTP (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · at SJK Akatemia (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | MP | JäPS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.