Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · MP vs Jippo Joensuu
Likeliest: Jippo Joensuu win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MP18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Jippo Joensuu55%53%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MP
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v SJK Akatemia (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Haka (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v PK-35 (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at HJK Klubi 04 (A)3-4
- Aug 16 · v EIF (H)0-2
Jippo Joensuu
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · v HJK Klubi 04 (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v KTP (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at EIF (A)2-0
- Aug 20 · at KäPa (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v SJK Akatemia (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | MP | Jippo Joensuu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | 3-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.