Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:00 · MP vs SJK Akatemia
Likeliest: MP win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MP51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
SJK Akatemia23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MP
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 6 · at FC Haka (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v PK-35 (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at HJK Klubi 04 (A)3-4
- Aug 16 · v EIF (H)0-2
- Aug 7 · at JäPS (A)0-1
SJK Akatemia
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 6 · v JäPS (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · v HJK Klubi 04 (H)2-6
- Aug 21 · at FC Haka (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · at Jippo Joensuu (A)1-0
- Aug 8 · v PK-35 (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | MP | SJK Akatemia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-2 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.