Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:00 · MŠK Žilina vs AS Trenčín
Likeliest: MŠK Žilina win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MŠK Žilina71%68%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%19%−2
OursMarket
AS Trenčín13%13%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 87% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 32% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 3.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MŠK Žilina
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 13 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)3-3
- Sep 5 · v FK Železiarne Podbrezová (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at FC Spartak Trnava (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v KFC Komárno (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Dukla Banská Bystrica (A)4-3
AS Trenčín
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v DAC 1904 (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at MFK Zemplín Michalovce (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v MFK Ružomberok (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v FC Spartak Trnava (H)0-4
- Aug 15 · at FK Železiarne Podbrezová (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | MŠK Žilina | AS Trenčín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 1-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 86% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 86% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.