Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:00 · MŠK Žilina vs DAC 1904
Likeliest: DAC 1904 win · 46%
Likely score: 2–3
We make it 74% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MŠK Žilina29%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
DAC 190446%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 60% | +14 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | 63% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 2.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MŠK Žilina
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 14 · at TJ Kostolné Kračany (A)5-0
- Oct 11 · at MFK Ružomberok (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v AS Trenčín (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)3-3
- Sep 5 · v FK Železiarne Podbrezová (H)3-1
DAC 1904
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at MFK Zemplín Michalovce (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Spartak Trnava (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · at TJ Družstevník Veľké Ludince (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · at AS Trenčín (A)4-1
- Sep 5 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | MŠK Žilina | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 5-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.