3. Liga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:30 · MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln
Likeliest: MSV Duisburg win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MSV Duisburg43%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Viktoria Köln32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 63% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MSV Duisburg
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 13 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)4-2
- Oct 10 · v TSG Hoffenheim II U23 (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)4-1
- Sep 15 · v TSV Havelse (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)1-2
FC Viktoria Köln
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 14 · v SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · at Alemannia Aachen (A)5-2
- Sep 19 · v FC Ingolstadt 04 (H)3-0
- Sep 15 · at SV Meppen (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v F.C. Hansa Rostock (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | MSV Duisburg | FC Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.