NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:45 · MTK Budapest vs ETO FC Győr
Likeliest: MTK Budapest win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MTK Budapest42%43%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
ETO FC Győr34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MTK Budapest
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Mezőkövesd Zsóry (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Kisvárda FC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Debreceni VSC (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Nyiregyháza Spartacus (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Újpest (A)1-1
ETO FC Győr
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Karcagi SC (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Budapest Honvéd FC (H)3-2
- Sep 3 · v Ferencváros TC (H)0-3
- Aug 30 · at Kisvárda FC (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Zalaegerszegi TE (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | MTK Budapest | ETO FC Győr |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.