NB I (Hungary) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:00 · MTK Budapest vs Vasas
Likeliest: MTK Budapest win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MTK Budapest39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
Vasas36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MTK Budapest
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Paksi FC (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v ETO FC Győr (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Mezőkövesd Zsóry (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Kisvárda FC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Debreceni VSC (A)2-2
Vasas
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Kisvárda FC (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Debreceni VSC (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · at Tfse Tent Budapest (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Nyiregyháza Spartacus (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at Újpest (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | MTK Budapest | Vasas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.