1. Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor
Likeliest: Muğlaspor win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Muğlaspor57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
İstanbulspor18%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Muğlaspor
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 19 · at Manisa FK (A)4-3
- Oct 15 · v Bursaspor (H)0-3
- Oct 11 · at Fatih Karagümrük (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Iğdır FK (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Sivasspor (A)1-1
İstanbulspor
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Antalyaspor (H)0-2
- Oct 14 · at Batman Petrolspor (A)2-4
- Oct 10 · v Esenler Erokspor (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Manisa FK (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Kayserispor (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Muğlaspor | İstanbulspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.