LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Mon, Oct 19 · 20:30 · Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC
Likeliest: Mushuc Runa win · 48%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mushuc Runa48%51%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Orense SC23%21%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 70% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mushuc Runa
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at Delfín (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Cuenca (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Guayaquil City (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Leones del Norte (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at LDU (A)0-0
Orense SC
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)0-0
- Sep 21 · at Manta FC (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Universidad Católica del Ecuador (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Guayaquil City (H)4-3
- Sep 3 · at Leones del Norte (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Mushuc Runa | Orense SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.