Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:00 · MVV Maastricht vs Almere City FC
Likeliest: Almere City FC win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MVV Maastricht29%31%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Almere City FC46%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 66% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MVV Maastricht
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 6 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)2-1
- Aug 21 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at FC Eindhoven (A)3-2
- Aug 9 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-1
Almere City FC
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 4 · v Jong Ajax (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at De Graafschap (A)4-1
- Aug 21 · at Vitesse (A)3-0
- Aug 14 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | MVV Maastricht | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.