Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 21 · 18:00 · MVV Maastricht vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 43%
A 34% home win. The market says 24%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MVV Maastricht34%24%+10
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
FC Volendam43%52%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 63% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 76% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 31% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MVV Maastricht
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Aug 14 · at FC Eindhoven (A)3-2
- Aug 9 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-1
- Apr 24 · v TOP Oss (H)0-2
- Apr 17 · at Vitesse (A)0-0
- Apr 10 · v Helmond Sport (H)0-0
FC Volendam
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 15 · v TOP Oss (H)3-0
- Aug 10 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)2-3
- May 17 · v Telstar (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Excelsior (A)1-1
- May 3 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | MVV Maastricht | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.