Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:45 · MVV Maastricht vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 70%
Likely score: 1–2
A 70% away win. The market says 66%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MVV Maastricht11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo70%66%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 30% | 34% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 19% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MVV Maastricht
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 9 · at NAC Breda (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · at TOP Oss (A)1-4
- Sep 26 · v Helmond Sport (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)1-6
- Sep 11 · v Almere City FC (H)0-4
Heracles Almelo
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)3-0
- Oct 2 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v Vitesse (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Almere City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | MVV Maastricht | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.