Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 22 · 15:45 · MVV Maastricht vs Willem II
Likeliest: Willem II win · 42%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MVV Maastricht35%15%+20
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Willem II42%65%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 69% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 35% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 85% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 18% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MVV Maastricht
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Mar 16 · at Jong AZ (A)1-1
- Mar 13 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-1
- Mar 6 · at FC Dordrecht (A)1-1
- Feb 27 · v De Graafschap (H)3-3
- Feb 22 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)0-2
Willem II
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Mar 13 · at TOP Oss (A)3-1
- Mar 8 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-1
- Feb 27 · at FC Emmen (A)3-0
- Feb 24 · v ADO Den Haag (H)0-1
- Feb 20 · v Vitesse (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | MVV Maastricht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.