Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 25 · 18:00 · NAC Breda vs Ajax
Likeliest: Ajax win · 38%
A 37% home win. The market says 28%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda37%28%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Ajax38%46%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 72% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 38% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
- Mar 15 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-6
- Mar 8 · v Feyenoord (H)3-3
Ajax
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Apr 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Mar 22 · at Feyenoord (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-0
- Mar 7 · at FC Groningen (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.