Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 26 · 18:00 · NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 74%
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda74%70%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
FC Eindhoven11%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)2-4
- Aug 28 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Jong Ajax (H)3-2
FC Eindhoven
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 18 · v FC Emmen (H)3-1
- Sep 11 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-3
- Aug 21 · at FC Den Bosch (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.