Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Jan 30 · 19:00 · NAC Breda vs FC Twente
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 39%
A 36% home win. The market says 26%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda36%26%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
FC Twente39%48%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 54% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 74% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 35% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Jan 24 · at PSV (A)2-2
- Jan 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)3-4
- Jan 10 · at FC Groningen (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Telstar (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
FC Twente
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Jan 24 · v Excelsior (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-0
- Jan 13 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
- Jan 10 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Feyenoord (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.