Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 14 · 15:45 · NAC Breda vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 35%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda33%38%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
FC Utrecht40%35%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 62% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 52% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Dec 7 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Excelsior (A)0-1
- Nov 22 · v PSV (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-0
FC Utrecht
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 11 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
- Nov 27 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Telstar (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.