Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 8 · 15:45 · NAC Breda vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 38%
A 37% home win. The market says 24%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda37%24%+13
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Feyenoord38%51%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 49% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 76% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 31% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 27 · at Telstar (A)0-3
- Feb 21 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-0
- Feb 6 · v Excelsior (H)0-2
- Jan 30 · v FC Twente (H)2-2
Feyenoord
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 1 · at FC Twente (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v Telstar (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-0
- Feb 8 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-0
- Feb 1 · at PSV (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.