KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Wed, Oct 29 · 19:00 · NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
NAC Breda45%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo29%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 24 · at SC Heerenveen (A)3-3
- Oct 18 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · v FC Groningen (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Ajax (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-1
Heracles Almelo
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 25 · at FC Volendam (A)0-3
- Oct 18 · v Feyenoord (H)0-7
- Oct 5 · at FC Twente (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at NAC Breda (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.