Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 16 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-0
- Oct 9 · v MVV Maastricht (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Vitesse (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v FC Eindhoven (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
Heracles Almelo
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at MVV Maastricht (A)5-1
- Oct 9 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)3-0
- Oct 2 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v Vitesse (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Almere City FC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.