Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:30 · NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 55%
A 22% away win. The market says 9%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda55%74%−20
OursMarket
Draw23%16%+6
OursMarket
Jong Ajax22%9%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 91% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 26% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 84% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 89% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 14 · v VVV-Venlo (H)0-2
- Aug 7 · at TOP Oss (A)2-1
- May 17 · at AZ (A)3-3
- May 10 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- May 2 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
Jong Ajax
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 17 · v FC Emmen (H)4-6
- Aug 7 · at FC Dordrecht (A)1-2
- Apr 24 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)0-2
- Apr 17 · at Jong PSV (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · v TOP Oss (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.