Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 72%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda72%70%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−1
OursMarket
MVV Maastricht11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 30% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at Vitesse (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v FC Eindhoven (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)2-4
MVV Maastricht
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at TOP Oss (A)1-4
- Sep 26 · v Helmond Sport (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)1-6
- Sep 11 · v Almere City FC (H)0-4
- Sep 6 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.