Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:30 · NAC Breda vs PSV
Likeliest: PSV win · 53%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda23%12%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%16%+8
OursMarket
PSV53%71%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 70% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 29% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 88% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 84% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 15% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Nov 8 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-0
- Oct 29 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-4
- Oct 24 · at SC Heerenveen (A)3-3
- Oct 18 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
PSV
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Nov 9 · at AZ (A)5-1
- Nov 4 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)1-1
- Oct 31 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)5-2
- Oct 26 · at Feyenoord (A)3-2
- Oct 21 · v Napoli (H)6-2
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.