Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · NAC Breda vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda40%38%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen35%37%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 50% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- May 2 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Ajax (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
SC Heerenveen
DrawWinLossWinWin
- May 3 · at FC Volendam (A)2-0
- Apr 25 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at AZ (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-1
- Mar 22 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.