Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 5 · 14:45 · NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 38%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda50%38%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam27%34%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 53% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 66% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 62% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 53% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Mar 21 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
- Mar 15 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-6
- Mar 8 · v Feyenoord (H)3-3
- Feb 27 · at Telstar (A)0-3
- Feb 21 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
Sparta Rotterdam
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Mar 21 · v FC Volendam (H)2-0
- Mar 14 · at Ajax (A)0-4
- Mar 8 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
- Feb 22 · at AZ (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.