Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:00 · NAC Breda vs VVV-Venlo
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 53%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NAC Breda53%67%−13
OursMarket
Draw23%19%+4
OursMarket
VVV-Venlo24%15%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 69% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 61% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 85% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 33% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 82% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NAC Breda
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 7 · at TOP Oss (A)2-1
- May 17 · at AZ (A)3-3
- May 10 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- May 2 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Ajax (H)0-2
VVV-Venlo
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Aug 7 · v Heracles Almelo (H)3-4
- Apr 24 · v Almere City (H)3-1
- Apr 17 · at Helmond Sport (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v De Graafschap (H)3-3
- Apr 6 · at Jong PSV (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | NAC Breda | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.