División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 19:00 · Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar
Likeliest: Bolívar win · 60%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 60% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nacional Potosí18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Bolívar60%56%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nacional Potosí
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Club Aurora (A)2-2
- Sep 16 · v Club Always Ready (H)0-4
- Sep 12 · at GV San José (A)3-0
- Sep 7 · v Blooming (H)2-1
- Aug 25 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)0-2
Bolívar
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Blooming (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · v GV San José (H)4-2
- Sep 13 · at CD Real Tomayapo (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)4-0
- Aug 28 · v Academia del Balompié Boliviano (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Nacional Potosí | Bolívar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 5-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.