División Profesional (Bolivia) · Wed, Sep 16 · 22:30 · Nacional Potosí vs Club Always Ready
Likeliest: Club Always Ready win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nacional Potosí34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Club Always Ready42%39%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 60% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 48% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nacional Potosí
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · at GV San José (A)3-0
- Sep 7 · v Blooming (H)2-1
- Aug 25 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Independiente Petrolero (H)3-0
- Aug 16 · v Academia del Balompié Boliviano (H)2-0
Club Always Ready
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 13 · v Guabirá (H)6-0
- Sep 5 · at Oriente Petrolero (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · v Club Aurora (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at CD Real Tomayapo (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Real Potosí (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Nacional Potosí | Club Always Ready |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.