Primera Division (Uruguay) · Mon, Oct 19 · 23:00 · Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado
Likeliest: Nacional win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nacional50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Deportivo Maldonado22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nacional
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Central Español (A)1-0
- Oct 5 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Defensor Sporting (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)1-1
Deportivo Maldonado
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v Liverpool UY (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Central Español (H)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Nacional | Deportivo Maldonado |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.