Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 25 · 22:30 · Nacional vs Liverpool UY
Likeliest: Nacional win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nacional46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Liverpool UY24%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nacional
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 19 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · at Central Español (A)1-0
- Oct 5 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Defensor Sporting (H)3-2
Liverpool UY
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Peñarol (H)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Progreso (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at Central Español (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Racing de Montevideo (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Nacional | Liverpool UY |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.