Primera Division (Uruguay) · Mon, Oct 5 · 23:00 · Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque
Likeliest: Nacional win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nacional40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Montevideo City Torque32%33%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nacional
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 26 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Defensor Sporting (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Peñarol (A)1-0
Montevideo City Torque
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 30 · v Peñarol (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)0-2
- Sep 21 · at Central Español (A)4-1
- Sep 18 · v Cienciano (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · v Liverpool UY (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Nacional | Montevideo City Torque |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.